You Say You Want A(nother) Revolution

I love the Beatles. Always have. Always will. Almost 40 years ago, the Beatles changed and enriched our world in ways that many argue will be felt for many generations to come. I agree.

And today, the Beatles are changing and enriching the world again. Not with their music this time. With their absolute refusal to cater to the status quo of the internet: a world where most of us lack broadband connections.

Take a look at the Beatles' official web site, which is virtually useless without a broadband connection. And ex-Beatle George Harrison's official web site goes one step further, posting the following warning on it's home page:

Warning: This site is not for the faint of bandwidth or resolution. Best viewed at DSL + speeds and at 1024 x 786 or higher resolution. Shockwave 8, Flash 5, and Quicktime 4 plug-ins required.

George's message is crystal clear: get with the program and get broadband internet access if you want to live in my world.

Let's take a closer look at what's happening here. Until recently, website developers usually offered users the option of viewing either a high-bandwidth, graphics intensive version of a website or a low-bandwidth, text based version. But lately, I have been noticing a trend towards what I call BAO websites: broadband access only. I'm not sure why this is so. Perhaps these developers are proceeding under the false assumption that all users have a broadband connection to the internet. Perhaps they are deliberately attempting to foster the demand for broadband by providing no other alternative. Or perhaps they are arrogantly taking an "in-your-face-get-with-the-program-you-don't-deserve-to-live-much-less-be-able-to-access-our-website-unless-you-get-a-broadband-connection" approach to designing web sites.

Frankly, I don't care what the reason is. I only care about the results. I think that over the next few years, BAO web sites will become the norm, rather than the exception. This of course will drive the demand for bandwidth, and will perhaps ultimately lead to the holy grail of bandwidth: FTTH (fiber to the home), which can be expressed mathematically like this:

BAO = FTTH

Put another way, a significant increase in the number of BAO web sites will change the definition of broadband. I have what passes for a broadband connection today (when it works, that is) -- cable modem -- but I still find myself waiting for up to 10 seconds for any page on George Harrison's web site to load. This is tolerable when BAO web sites are the exception, but will be intolerable when BAO web sites become the norm. I think that in a few years time, cable modem speeds will be perceived the way we perceive 56K modem speeds today -- as extremely slow.

I find it interesting but not altogether surprising that recording artists like the Beatles are among those nudging us into the era of BAO web sites. Such people are, by definition, "artistic" and are likely to delight in and approve BAO web sites designed by developers on their behalf.

Now I'm not saying that George Harrison is going to single handedly create an explosive demand for bandwidth. I don't claim that people are beating a path to his web site. Heck, my 19 year old daughter doesn't even know who George Harrison is, in spite of the fact that I remind her every year that she and he share a birthday. (About the best I can coax out of her is, "Was he the one that got shot?")

But a definite transition is taking place -- one that has parallels to a technology transition that occurred in the 80's.

So get Mr. Peabody and set your WayBack machines to 1983. As we step out of the WayBack machine, we notice that people everywhere are using a wonderful little PC based word processing program called Multimate. (If we had set the WayBack machine to 1981, we would have seen Wang dedicated word processors. But by 1983, Multimate had killed Wang.)

Multimate, like all computer applications of its time, used what was called a character cell user interface -- a fancy term for a text based user interface. Multimate was designed to run off a floppy disk, and to run within a PC's limitations of 640K of memory. It became the word processing standard at many major corporations, including my employer at the time, GE. I can still remember seeing boxes piled from floor to ceiling of Multimate software licenses back at GE's Consumer Electronics Business Operation.

Of course, with Multimate you could hardly print even the most rudimentary graphics such as italicized text, let alone see them on the screen. ( I remember coming up with an ingenious solution at the time -- I inserted a printer control pause character before and after the words that I wanted to print in italics. When the printer paused, I switched balls on my NEC Spinwriter, inserting an italicized print ball, and switched back again when the printer paused again after the words were printed in italics. (I'll pause a few seconds now until you stop laughing.)

1.....2......3......

Are you back? Good. I hope I made your day. Heaven knows you need something to laugh about these days, and I'm there for you.

Eventually, Microsoft Word killed Multimate, just as Multimate killed Wang. And here is the analogy I am trying to make. Multimate was the equivalent of a low-bandwidth word processing solution. That is, Multimate was to Microsoft Word what text based web sites are to graphics intensive web sites.

You didn't need a powerful computer to run Multimate. And today, you don't need a broadband connection to access the internet. But when Microsoft Word, with its WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get) user interface killed Multimate, you had to buy a new computer (one that could run Windows) or upgrade your existing computer if you wanted to run Microsoft Word. Even if you wanted to continue to use Multimate, you couldn't. If you wanted to communicate with the rest of the world, you had to use what the rest of the world was using. You had to get with the program.

Today, most people are still "multimating" the internet, that is, they are using text based versions of web sites to accommodate their slow internet connections. But as BAO web sites become the norm, rather than the exception over the next few years, users will have a harder time multimating the internet -- and eventually the choice will be taken away from them. If they want to use the internet, they will have to get a broadband connection. They will have to get with the program.

And therein lies the problem. Today, telecommunications companies have cut back on capital expenditures. Optical networking companies are reducing forecasts, cutting production, and laying off employees at a time when the build out of the broadband infrastructure should be accelerating to breakneck speed. In essence, what we have right now is a market -- broadband internet services -- where demand is increasing but supply is not. In fact, as some ISP's go under, one could argue that supply is decreasing.

Which leads me to remarks made yesterday by Jim Slaby, a networking analyst with the Giga Information Group. In response to JDSU's announced layoffs, Slaby said that "The fact is that service providers, which are the ultimate customers for fiber optics, really can't afford to defer investment in infrastructure. They've got to get back to work on revamping infrastructure because we are not seeing bandwidth demand slowing down."

Now I suppose a doomsday scenario could materialize. I suppose you could look at the internet as a collection of wonderful places (BAO web sites) to visit. If there are no roads (broadband connections) to get you there, you might lose interest rather quickly and find other things to occupy your time -- other places to visit, so to speak. But I think Slaby's scenario is more likely than the doomsday scenario, because the doomsday scenario essentially requires us to un-invent the internet, which is unlikely to happen, if for no other reason that it would make Al Gore very sad.

So rock on, John, Paul, George, and Ringo. Lead us once again into a new world. Where plasticine porters have looking glass eyes, there beneath the blue suburban skies. Yes, the Beatles -- the best band -- are also broadband.

You kind of lost me after "I love the Beatles" - but I'll take it that was the essence of your post.

Post? Looked more like a short story to me.

------------------
Bearkat77's Beatlemaniac Page

So basically anything worth looking at is beyond the scope of my poor tired ol' computer? That's sad....

------------------
I'd be quite prepared for that eventuality

I did not read this while book, sorry, but a part I saw was about George's website. He hired some wizzkids do build it according to latest techniques. I could get in anyway and it is lovely.

------------------
We're all Apple Scruffs.

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Tahoma, Arial, Sans-Serif">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by bearkat77:
Post? Looked more like a short story to me.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Short? I'd hate to see her longer ones.

Very interesting post Beatlemethisbeatlemethat!

But how did you get such a long message to post? I have trouble with my longer ones.

------------------
Fab 4 Forever!
Gotta visit THE site!

eleanor_rigby_97@hotmail.com

"Give us a Kiss"

I get the hi-tech thebeatles.com OK on my 56K modem,as well as the All Things Must Pass site.


------------------
Tim
------------

dear e. r.

special restictions apply to you.

no one was saved!

------------------

Special restrictions????!!

You are the first to say anything about it!

------------------
Fab 4 Forever!
Gotta visit THE site!

eleanor_rigby_97@hotmail.com

"Give us a Kiss"

and obviously the last

****** *** ****

------------------

not the last, however. it is ceartainly nice to to meet ms. rigby after all these years. are you really lonely? maybe you could get to know lady madonna. seems like she could use a friend. can't we all.

look at all the lonely pimples.

------------------

I didn't write it lol..it was a news item.

------------------
Peace, Love, and Beatles,
Stefanie

Beatle Me This, Beatle Me That

//0-0\\//0-0\\//0-0\\
"After all is said and done, you can't go pleasing everyone, so screw it"
--John Lennon